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Gold Has A Tendency To Rise In April
Posted April 11th, 2014

TANGIBLE INVESTMENTS - Los Angeles - by James O'Dell - Gold and silver prices were steady on Friday with gold at $1,318.57 an ounce and silver at $20.01 an ounce, while the Dow saw triple digit losses for a second straight day and the U.S. dollar fell to multi-week lows. According to HSBC, the dollar weakness is being partially attributed to the result of the dovish minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
 
“The FOMC minutes showed that there was not a concerted decision by the Committee to adopt a less accommodative policy stance, especially for the near term,” said HSBC, which would weigh on the dollar but support the price of gold. The Gold price has a seasonal tendency to rise in April anyway, says UBS.
 
“Based on data going back to 1972 the next best gold performance after April doesn't happen until July,” says the bank. While physical demand generally slows a bit in April, UBS is expecting some pick up in Indian demand this year as retailers stock up ahead of the Akshaya Tritiya festival on May 2 Traditionally, anything bought during Akshaya Tritiya is considered to be good fortune, so Indians typically buy gold.

“The extent of the improvement in Indian gold demand will clearly be limited by current regulations on supply, but considering how quiet physical markets have been of late, gold should welcome this development,” says UBS. Bimal Jalan, former governor of India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has joined with those calling for an increase in gold imports and argues that it would not harm the Indian economy.
 
Jalan said on Friday that if India's current account deficit (CAD) "is okay, and it is comfortable just now, there is no reason to control gold imports, particularly if (gold) prices are reasonable." The timing appears right for India to begin a reduction of import duties on gold, and many expect it will happen soon after the elections in May.
 
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