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Gold To Rally When India Lifts Import Restrictions Posted April 1st, 2014
TANGIBLE INVESTMENTS - Los Angeles - by James O'Dell - Gold bullion prices eased to $1,280.20 an ounce on Tuesday, but after exiting March a bit lower, the yellow metal posted a 6.8 percent gain for the first quarter, this makes gold one of the best performing assets of 2014. Silver dipped to $19.73 an ounce, while palladium rose to $774.75 an ounce, and platinum jumped 1 percent to $1,422.50 an ounce, pushing the gold/platinum ratio to a two month high of 1.11.
Geo-political risk appears to be increasing and the smart money is anticipating further tension surrounding Russia and its neighbors, flair ups in the Middle East and now North and South Korea are launching missiles at one another.
In India, the nation's finance minister has announced that he is currently consulting with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's Central Bank, over lifting the draconian restrictions on gold imports. It is clear that the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has been reduced, and it could mean a substantial change in India's gold import restrictions. If those restrictions are removed entirely, the market could see an additional 5oo tons of physical demand.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees the potential and recently announced that, “There is also a risk that India, one of the largest gold buying nations globally, may reduce tariffs on gold imports in the coming weeks, which could release some pent-up demand; this dynamic is one of the reasons our 2Q14 forecast is slightly higher than price expectations for the third quarter.”
Meanwhile, suggestions that gold demand in China is beginning to slip this year, are not backed up by the figures. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) reports that in the first 12 weeks of 2014 sales totaled 532 tons, this suggests an annual sales total of 2,305 tons should the current level of demand continue throughout the year.
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